Issa Just Won The 49th Congressional District And Nobody Notices
by Don Greene | 3/11/2017
Mike Levin is the candidate being pushed to marginalize Doug Applegate and insure Issa maintains his incumbency.
On Saturday, March 11th, Darrel Issa held his first Town Hall in Oceanside, CA. It is estimated by those inside the Junior Seau Recreation Center, a crowd of approximately 500 people heard the Congressman answer questions and address his constituents concerns. Outside the center, hundreds more were present to protest Issa.
Issa took questions from a variety of people, on a variety of subjects, based on a randon drawing of ticket stubs. Mark Larson - a local, conservative Christian talk radio host - was the moderate and the person who was drawing the tickets from a large plastic box on stage. The odds of being selected from the crowd of 500 to be one of the ~20 speakers are fairly low.
I'm not a mathematician or statistician, but even I can see the probability of having your number drawn to ask a question is relatively low. Add into the mix the decreasing amount of tickets being drawn from, the varying actual number of total speakers, and other variables, you get a probability which is even higher. Which brings me to this question: What is the probability of you being drawn as the last speaker in a series of other speakers?
If your name is Mike Levin, the probability is really, really high.
Issa held two sessions of his town hall; the first beginning at 8:00am and the second at 10:30am. To get a ticket to the town hall, you had to be lucky enough to get the email with the correct Eventbrite website link in a decent enough timeframe to get a ticket before the event was sold out.
Full disclosure: my boss, the Deputy Mayor of Oceanside, had to pull rank and contact the congressman directly to be able to get into the hall for the 8:00am session because he was unable to get tickets through Eventbrite.
If you were lucky enough to get the ticket, then you had to be pretty damned lucky to be drawn randomly to ask a question, and yet Mike Levin was the last question of the 8:00am session. Is this beginning to look strange yet?
Let's review everything which has happened.
- Mike Levin is an Orange County attorney who is a long-time, Corporate Democrat. He is backed by big-pocket donors/fundraisers for the party and for the Hillary campaign; Levin himself raised 500,000 for the Hillary campaign.
- Levin showed up at the impromptu town hall held in Vista in February and was allowed to speak when people knew he was a candidate. Doug Applegate was specifically told he was not allowed to speak at the event.
- Higher-ups in the SDCDP and OCDP have met with Levin and obstensibly support Levin as they were involved with the organizing of the Vista town hall event.
- The California Democratic Party was involved in the Vista event and, at this point, also know Levin is a candidate.
With all this beginning to add up, the odds of all of this being coincidence are dropping rapidly. And now, the conspiracy theorist in me is beginning to believe that Issa, along with the others involved, is starting to support Levin.
Issa understands he doesn't have as hard an election facing against Levin as he does against Applegate. He was very dramatic during his interaction with Levin before he asked a question. Anything he can do to get Levin to be his opponent in November 2018 is a move to keep his incumbency.
Update: In the second session, someone else is now drawing the numbers from the plastic box, not Mark Larson.
Don Greene is the former North Area Vice Chair for the San Diego County Democratic Party and recently re-registered as a No Party Preference voter. He is currently the Aide to the Deputy Mayor of Oceanside and has consulted on a number of local campaigns.
All opinions expressed by Don are his own and not necessarily those of his employer or his clients.